The recent uptrend for bitcoin (BTC) did not attract a new wave of active users, while exchange flows also suggest a “relatively lacklustre influx of capital,” the on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has found.
Writing in the latest issue of The Week On-chain report, Glassnode’s analysts described the lack of interest from new bitcoin users during the rally between late June and early August as one of the main factors behind “weakness and subsequent rejection of the price from [USD] 24.4k back below the Realized Price.”
The failure to attract new active users was “particularly noticeable amongst retail investors and speculators,” the report added.
Bitcoin’s Realized Price is the value of all circulating coins at the price they were bought, divided by the number of coins in circulation, and is often thought of as the break-even price for the average bitcoin investor. The Realized Price currently stands at around USD 21,700.
Further in the report, Glassnode also pointed to exchange flows as another sign of fundamental weakness in the Bitcoin market at the moment. According to the report, the monthly momentum of exchange flows is now signaling only lackluster interest from investors.
“Exchange flows have now declined to multi-year lows, returning to late-2020 levels. Similar to the retail investor volumes, this suggests a general lack of speculative interest in the asset persists,” the report said.
It added that the price rally that followed the June bottom in the Bitcoin market “was not accompanied by a significant influx of speculators into the market,” which indicates that the rally had “little substance behind it from an on-chain perspective.”
In conclusion, Glassnode noted that the current structure of the Bitcoin market is “certainly comparable with the late-2018 bear market.” However, it also warned that the market “does not yet have the macro trend reversal in profitability and demand inflow required for a sustainable uptrend.”
At 9:15 UTC on Wednesday morning, BTC was trading at USD 21,352, down less than 1% in a day and nearly 11% in a week.
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